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Good morning. I remember the day that Al Carns, former soldier and now junior defence minister, was selected by Labour’s ruling national executive committee to stand for the party in Birmingham Selly Oak. As it happens, I was having coffee with a contact in the Ministry of Defence.
“That’s a loss,” I remember them saying, “He was CDS (Chief of the Defence Staff) material.”
In terms of his pre-politics career, Carns has the most impressive CV of any new Labour MP since . . . Keir Starmer in 2015. Now a growing number of MPs in the 2024 intake are tipping him as Starmer’s possible replacement. What does it tell us about the Parliamentary Labour Party’s state of mind? Some more on that below.
Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Follow Stephen on Bluesky and Georgina on Bluesky. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com
Uncharted terrain
Keir Starmer’s position has not improved, but it has stabilised a bit because Labour MPs have looked into the abyss, and the abyss has looked back and said “you remember that the HMRC investigation into Angela Rayner is still ongoing, right?” Then they’ve looked at the abyss some more and it has continued: “and you do know that Wes Streeting has a much closer personal and political connection to the disgraced Peter Mandelson than Keir Starmer?”
The abyss, growing quite chatty at this point, has added: “and come on, Shabana Mahmood is not going to win a leadership election. Labour members are not going to pick the border-tightening home secretary, are you nuts?”
All of which has Labour MPs thinking “well, if not them, who?” And that’s a big part of why more MPs in the 2024 intake are talking about Carns: they are uncertain or unhappy with the various declared candidates, they are looking around their peers for alternatives and turning to the one of their number with the most impressive backstory.
It’s not uncommon for MPs to arrive in parliament and immediately be spoken of as a future leader. I remember in 2015, not only was Keir Starmer, the project of the London Labour establishment, seen in those terms, but on the Conservative side, I remember shortly before the 2015 general election being told by a cabinet minister that I had to “meet the new guy who has got William Hague’s seat: he’s going to be prime minister one day”. That was Rishi Sunak. In 2016, I remember a Conservative special adviser saying that once David Cameron had won the Brexit referendum, Mark Carney would stand down at the end of his term and “go back and become the next Liberal prime minister”. (So, you win some, you lose some.)
That MPs in the 2024 intake are talking up someone who has never held senior ministerial office or shadowed a big role in opposition also suggests they are not yet sold on the declared alternatives to the current prime minister. Sooner or later either Labour MPs will decide, or some kind of event will deal the final blow to an already weakened prime minister. Until then, Starmer’s premiership may be a long time in the dying.
Now try this
Yesterday was a sad evening — it was the leaving do of Sarah Ebner, who among other responsibilities was head of newsletters here. She has been central to everything that has gone right at Inside Politics, not least in helping me to hire Georgina, and every reply “no, Stephen, are you nuts? That’s not a good feature” to my suggestions over the years has made this a better newsletter. I’m going to miss her a lot.
I usually recommend some kind of cultural activity in this space, but for today, I am leaving you with “say something nice to a colleague you value” (and if they are a colleague who does not subscribe to this newsletter, tell them they should do so, etc).
However you spend it, have a wonderful weekend!
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