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Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
“It’s only four years,” groaned a senior British official — shortly after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. The thought process was clear. America’s allies had to hold their breath for the duration of the second Trump presidency. Eventually, the old America would return.
A year later and the mood has shifted dramatically. In his now famous Davos speech, Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, asserted: “We know the old order is not coming back.” That take is increasingly common. The new conventional wisdom is that the Trump presidency is not a temporary aberration. On the contrary, Trump represents profound forces in America that will not disappear when he leaves the White House. There will be no going back to the status quo ante — either in the international arena or in the US itself.
But, like any conventional wisdom, this new view deserves scrutiny. As Trump’s behaviour becomes more and more indefensible, both at home and abroad, a genuine backlash is finally under way. That backlash could gather force — and eventually culminate in a wholesale repudiation of the Maga movement.
America’s allies are beginning to find their voices and to rediscover their courage. Carney’s speech was one example. So was Sir Keir Starmer’s condemnation of Trump’s denigration of the sacrifices made by British and allied troops in Afghanistan. Last week, the speaker of the Polish parliament refused to sign a petition calling for Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize; another Polish MP noted pointedly that: “The times when Nero, under threat of punishment, demanded recognition for his musical talents have been regarded as the beginning of the decline of the Roman empire.”
The backlash that will really matter has to take place in the US itself. And here too, there is finally some momentum. Ordinary Americans took to the streets of Minneapolis in their thousands to protest against the violent tactics of ICE, which saw two citizens pay with their lives. Senior members of the president’s own party have spoken out against events in Minnesota and repudiated Trump’s threats to Greenland.
Many Republicans were openly horrified by the racist meme that the president posted about the Obamas — and the White House was forced to take it down. Leading businessmen are also beginning to find their voices. Last week, Ken Griffin of Citadel, a Republican donor and hedge fund manager, pointed out that Trump administration decisions have been “very, very enriching” for his own family.
None of this will matter much if the American people continue to vote for Trump and his acolytes. But recent special elections have gone badly for Maga Republicans — even in traditional strongholds such as Texas, Louisiana and Florida. Senior figures in Trump’s party worry aloud that the Republicans could lose both the House and the Senate in November’s midterm elections.
The gathering backlash against Trump is steadily increasing the chance that his presidency will ultimately be seen as a grotesque aberration — rather than a lasting shift.
The idea that the US will never be able to return to the politics and policies of the pre-Trump era sounds worldly and realistic. But countries can turn the clock back. Greece restored its democracy in 1975, after seven years of rule by the colonels. India lived under a state of emergency for 21 months in the 1970s — with widespread violations of civil liberties — until the ruling Congress Party was decisively defeated at the next elections. Going a little further back, England went through a civil war and an eleven-year republic, before restoring the monarchy in 1660. Why dismiss the idea of an American restoration?
If that sounds over-optimistic consider the Kennedy Center — now renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center by the president’s minions. Who really believes that Washington’s leading centre for the arts will be called the Trump-Kennedy Center in perpetuity? At some point in the future, Trump’s name will be removed from the side of the building — and the whole embarrassing episode will be consigned to the past.
But there is a twist. When it became apparent that both artists and audiences were boycotting the new Trump-Kennedy Center, the administration announced that it will be closed for two years for “renovations”. Judging from the fate of the White House’s East Wing, who knows what the building will look like in 2028? Trump has three years left in office and can still do a lot of damage — to the Kennedy Center and, more importantly, to the US itself.
The president’s anti-democratic instincts are the biggest danger. America may decide to repudiate Trump — but he is unlikely to accept that verdict. Trump demonstrated his inability to tolerate defeat after losing the 2020 election. He will not go quietly. He is now surrounded by loyal acolytes and seems to have a hard core of support of up to 40 per cent of the country. That suggests there could be more violence and civil disorder before an American restoration can truly take place.
Given all these uncertainties, it makes sense for countries to reduce their reliance on America. But, even as they diversify their relationships and hedge their long-standing bets on the US, America’s allies should keep an open mind. Nations, like people, can sometimes repudiate their mistakes and restore their fortunes. After Trump, the old America could make a comeback.