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The European Commission is toning down its criticism of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and might even disburse fresh EU funds to his illiberal government ahead of elections that threaten to unseat the bloc’s longest-serving prime minister.
Several people familiar with the situation said that EU officials did not want to be seen as interfering in elections or to give more ammunition to Orbán in his anti-Brussels campaign.
Polls suggest Orbán could lose the April 12 vote, with the opposition Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar leading Orbán’s Fidesz by about 10 points. Tisza had also urged EU institutions to show restraint during the campaign, the people said.
In a speech on Sunday, Magyar promised to strengthen Hungary’s standing in the EU. “Hungary’s place is in Europe, not only because we need Europe but also because Europe needs us,” he said.
The Commission was already treading more carefully in its public communications on Hungary and rule of law concerns, according to the people. About €2.4bn in fresh funds could be disbursed to Orbán’s government before the elections, regardless of recent concerns.
“Months before such a historic, decisive election . . . they came to the conclusion that the best thing to do is not to do anything,” said a Hungarian official. “The Commission is hedging its bets, which is normal.”
An EU diplomat added: “It’s wise that the Commission is not doing any massive announcements with the Hungarians in order to not risk being portrayed as interfering in the elections.”
Orbán has long been a thorn in the EU’s side, courting Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposing military aid for Ukraine, as well as its bid to join the EU.
The Hungarian strongman and his party have repeatedly claimed that the EU is meddling in domestic politics. In the campaign, they are portraying Magyar as an EU puppet who “can’t say no” to Brussels.
MCC Brussels, a think-tank linked to Orbán, earlier this month launched a “Democracy Interference Observatory” meant to “analyse how the European Union and EU-linked actors shape national elections across Europe”.
“Whatever the EU institutions will do will be used by Orbán . . . Whatever we say or do not say, it will be used against us,” said a European parliament official.
In his tirades against the EU, Orbán has received support from US President Donald Trump’s Maga movement. US secretary of state Marco Rubio is visiting Hungary on Monday in a show of support for Orbán’s government. Next month, Hungary will host the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the US conservative gathering, at which Trump is expected to deliver a message.
The Commission’s stance on Hungary has been further complicated by the EU’s top court, which issued a legal opinion last week that questioned a 2023 decision to unfreeze €10bn for Budapest in order to overcome Orbán’s veto on Ukraine aid.
“Brussels is threatening Hungary through the European Court of Justice because we are not paying Ukraine,” Hungary’s EU minister János Bóka said in response to the legal opinion. “The allies of the Tisza Party are resorting to ever harsher measures to impose their will on Hungary and bring a Brussels puppet government to power.”
About €17bn in EU funds destined for Budapest remain frozen owing to concerns over discrimination and judicial independence. The Commission has also launched an investigation into the Hungarian government allegedly seeking to recruit EU officials as spies.
The Commission said the institution was “actively looking into these [spying] allegations” and assessing the rule of law in Hungary. “We have continued normally with our work, particularly as regards our enforcement action,” it said.
It was “simply incorrect” that initiatives were being paused because of the election, the Commission said, adding that the timing was “determined exclusively by the necessary analytical and procedural work”.
Earlier this month, Orbán published a decree ordering courts to scrap certain lawsuits against the government, raising concerns that the government was curtailing the courts’ independence. The Commission said: “We are following developments closely, and we are now analysing the decree in question.”
Tisza declined to comment.
Some politicians fear that Brussels’ delaying any decisions for fear of being perceived as influencing the elections sends the wrong message. “It is such a stupid strategy,” said Tineke Strik, a lawmaker from the Green Party who led negotiations on a recent parliamentary report on rule of law breaches in Hungary.
Budapest stands to receive €16bn in defence funding under the EU’s flagship €150bn joint arms procurement programme, known as Safe. If Hungary’s funding plan is approved, Budapest would receive a first tranche of about €2.4bn.
“Granting him [Orbán] this money would be absolutely absurd,” said Michał Wawrykiewicz, an MEP from the European People’s Party, the same group Tisza belongs to.
Two people familiar with the procedure, however, cautioned that withholding the Safe funds could also be perceived as interference.
The Commission said that regarding the funds for defence, “no decision has been taken” and “we continue working closely with national authorities”.