Rewind just a couple days, and you’d be forgiven for thinking the 2026 Oscar race was all sewn up. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another had swept all the major precursors, taking home the top prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and, just this past Saturday, the Producers’ Guild of America Awards, a major Academy Award bellwether. Now, it just needed SAG’s Actor Award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture to confirm its dominance.
But the latter ceremony provided us with exactly the kind of last-minute twist that makes awards season so exhilarating: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners took that honor instead. Given final Oscars voting is currently taking place—with all ballots to be submitted by Thursday—this will certainly give the rollicking vampire saga a huge boost. The enthusiasm for the film was clear in the room—Viola Davis cheered wildly before awarding the best actor prize to its star, Michael B. Jordan; Samuel L. Jackson let out a resounding laugh before giving Sinners the ensemble prize; both victories elicited buoyant standing ovations; and Delroy Lindo’s teary, somewhat stunned final speech will surely remain top of mind for still-undecided voters.
A best picture Oscar win is not guaranteed by any means—the PGA victor has gone on to win best picture seven times out of 10 over the last decade, so it’s the more reliable predictor. (In the case of the SAG ensemble prize, it’s lined up with best picture five times in the past 10 years.) But when best picture doesn’t go to the PGA winner (1917 in 2020, The Big Short in 2016), it often goes to the SAG ensemble winner (Parasite, Spotlight). As a result, come Oscar night in 13 days, Sinners and One Battle could be neck-and-neck for the top prize.
And it’s not the only battle keeping us on the edge of our seats. Another is in best actor: after taking the Critics’ Choice Award, Golden Globe, and basically every critics’ association prize going, it seemed inconceivable that anyone other than Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet would clinch that award. Yes, the BAFTAs provided a curveball, handing that prize to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo, but wasn’t that just a classically left-field move from an awards body that loves rewarding homegrown talent? Well, maybe not, as it turns out—it was perhaps, as some suspected, an indication that Chalamet isn’t the way-out-in-front leader of the pack we assumed he was. At the SAG Actor Awards it was, of course, Michael B. Jordan who triumphed.
The reception he received in the room was immense, and his speech characteristically charming—a much-needed reminder of the 39-year-old’s unparalleled charisma and the many years he’s worked in the industry, zipping from action epics and franchise fare to more serious dramas and beloved indie hits. It’s entirely possible that he channels this momentum into a best actor Oscar win. (Lest we forget, Sinners has an all-time record 16 nominations, so this is a film the Academy truly loves.)