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Wizz Air has been hit by an “aggressive” wave of short selling after the budget airline warned that the Iran war would wipe out its profits this year, exacerbating concerns over its ability to compete with larger rival Ryanair.
Short interest, a proxy for short selling, has risen from 8.5 per cent to 13.5 per cent of the Hungarian airline’s issued shares since the start of the month, according to data provider Breakout Point.
The rapid increase in bets against its shares has seen Wizz leapfrog Greggs as the most shorted stock on the London market.
The low-cost carrier last week estimated that the impact of grounding planes and higher fuel prices would reduce its full-year profit by €50mn.
Hedge funds including Citadel Advisors, DE Shaw and WorldQuant have built or added to short positions in Wizz over the past week, according to disclosures from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.
“In terms of speed and scale, this is the most aggressive short build-up we’ve seen in any European stock since the Middle East conflict escalated,” said Ivan Ćosović, founder of Breakout Point, which based its analysis on disclosed short positions only.
The FCA discloses short positions publicly when they reach 0.5 per cent of a company’s issued shares.
Shares in Wizz have fallen more than 20 per cent since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28. That extended a decline of 14 per cent last month after the airline’s main shareholder, Indigo Partners, offloaded a near 10 per cent stake.
Wizz has long been a target for short sellers. The airline is struggling to remain profitable in the face of aggressive competition from larger rival Ryanair and rising costs across the industry. Before the Iran war broke out Wizz was forecasting its financial outcome for the year ending March 31 would fall between a €25mn net profit and a €25mn loss.
The Iran crisis has exacerbated its challenges. Andrew Lobbenberg, an aviation analyst at Barclays, said Wizz had less fuel hedging in place than rivals, as well as low underlying margins and “high exposure” to Israel.
However, Wizz chief executive József Váradi told the FT that the situation in the Gulf was “more manageable than previous crises”.
“War is never a nice thing to deal with but we have been a lot more prepared for this one, we stand a lot firmer on this one than previous events,” he said after the company issued its profit warning last week.
He said the shock was “not at the scale” of disruptions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or the conflict in Gaza, and that only 5 per cent of the airline’s capacity was affected.
“We are effectively reallocating that 5 per cent capacity starting in May. By the time we get to summer, the real peak period, most of this will have been mitigated,” Váradi added.
Data visualisation by Ray Douglas