Welcome to the 98th Oscars. Unlike recent years, when there was little suspense and lower ratings, this has most everything one could hope for. There are big commercial films in the Best Picture race, and wide-open races in several major categories with films the global audience has actually seen! In fact, the only lock seems to be Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley, with One Battle After Another’s Sean Penn a strong favorite for Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal as the kinky coiled spring soldier Frank Lockjaw.
Best Actor has turned into quite the race: Leonardo DiCaprio was the early favorite after winning the National Board of Review for his turn as the dulled revolutionary in the bathrobe, but then momentum seemed to swing towards Timothée Chalamet’s highly strung ping pong player in Marty Supreme when he won the Golden Globe. A late overall surge by Sinners was cemented by Michael B. Jordan being honored for his dual performance by his SAG-AFTRA peers at the Actor Awards, and if anything, he seems to be the slight favorite.
One Battle After Another has been a frontrunner since the film debuted, but Sinners is right there. It is hard to not feel good about both films and they are major studio efforts from Warner Bros. That studio is in the process of being sold to Paramount Global, and both of those films were gutsy calls made by production chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy. These executives were maligned by overly cynical journalists, and they were on the ropes. Before anyone saw a frame, One Battle After Another was assailed for costing more than any film made prior by writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson, and Sinners got walloped because when Ryan Coogler’s original script went out to buyers, the ask was for the copyright to revert back to the filmmaker down the line, a deal reserved for a few filmmakers including Quentin Tarantino.
Now, the films combined for 29 Oscar nominations; Coogler and Anderson figure to split the two screenplay prizes for Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplays, and they’ll fight it out for Best Picture and Best Director honors. We’ll give Hamnet the outsider’s chance to sneak in, but it seems the night will belong to One Battle and Sinners, Coogler and Anderson, and Mike and Pam. De Luca’s longtime New Line lieutenant Richard Brenner was joking when he previewed Zach Cregger’s Weapons at CinemaCon and quipped, “See you at the Oscars.” His line got a big laugh but proved prophetic when Amy Madigan not only got a nomination for Best Supporting Actress, but also won top prize at the Actor Awards and Critics Choice. Teyana Taylor, who came charging out of the gate early for her turn as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills, might have something to say about that.
Deadline’s Oscar live blog goes back to the salad days of late founder Nikki Finke, who filled it with snark and salty humor. We’ve been doing our best for years trying to spice up the proceedings with irreverent stuff, culled in a team effort. After throttling down from his post as co-editor in chief to editor at large, Mike Fleming Jr. will handle the live blog solo. Think of it as comparable to Matt Damon’s turn in The Martian, when he was all alone and sustained himself by generating his own manure. He’s got plenty of that, so let’s have some fun and please feel free to be unsparing in the comments!