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Iran is likely to be earning more than $140mn a day from selling oil as prices surge and the US turns a blind eye to its shipments to avoid further destabilising crude markets that have been shaken by the conflict.
At least 13 supertankers have loaded crude at the country’s main export terminal on Kharg Island since the US and Israel began strikes on the country at the end of last month, according to analysts tracking Iranian shipments through satellite imagery.
About 24mn barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in that period, according to Kpler, a data firm. Iran has in effect closed the waterway, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is normally transported, to all other shipping by firing at tankers in the Gulf.
The disruption has helped drive the price of oil above $100 a barrel as other Middle Eastern countries have dramatically curbed their oil and gas production because they have no way to export or store crude. Oil prices are politically sensitive in the US, where costs at the pump weigh heavily on voters ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said Washington was prepared to tolerate the Iranian sales, despite existing US sanctions. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already and we have let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” he told CNBC.
Iran was also increasingly allowing Indian and potentially Chinese ships to pass through the Strait. “We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out and for now we are fine with that. We want the world to be well supplied,” Bessent added.
The US has also removed its sanctions on Russian oil to try to calm the markets, a move that may lead to more competition for Iranian oil with Chinese refiners.
Bessent’s comments came despite growing pressure in Washington for the US to cut off Tehran’s oil revenues. “If we continue up this escalation ladder, a move to restrict Iranian oil exports will likely gain more Oval Office traction,” said Helima Croft at RBC Capital.
The US said it had struck more than 90 targets on Kharg Island on Saturday, including naval mine storage facilities, but left its oil infrastructure untouched. However, some hawks in Washington have begun pushing for it to take over the island in an effort to regain leverage over Iran.
Michael Doran at the Hudson Institute said US President Donald Trump “would love to seize Kharg Island. Its seizure would be the perfect way to gain lasting leverage.”
But sending soldiers to take over the facility was fraught with risk, Doran said. “American Marines on Kharg Island would be sitting ducks” in the face of Iranian missiles, he said, adding the US would only sanction such a move if they could neutralise Tehran’s drones and missiles and push back Iranian troops from the coast.
While ships carrying Iranian crude typically mask their journeys to avoid US sanctions, analysts are able to track them through satellite images and estimate how much oil is being exported by their size.
Ahead of the conflict, Iran accelerated its oil exports, shipping nearly 4mn barrels a day at one point to try to move crude outside of the Gulf.
Since the conflict began, Tehran has loaded about 1.5mn to 1.6mn barrels each day on to tankers, said analysts at Kpler and Vortexa, another energy data company. This volume of oil, assuming a $10 discount to the price of Brent crude because of US sanctions, represents roughly $140mn a day of revenue.
“This is in line with the averages we have seen over the past year,” said Jashan Prema at Kpler, adding most of the ships Iran uses are supertankers that carry as much as 2mn barrels of oil.
Even after the US bombed Kharg, business has continued as normal, Prema said. “It has been fairly consistent, we have not seen a big change.”
Claire Jungman, an analyst at Vortexa, said seven out of the 13 tankers Iran loaded were part of the so-called shadow fleet, a group of vessels that moves sanctioned oil while concealing their journeys and without western insurance.
However, she noted recently more ships owned by Iran’s national oil company have been loading at Kharg Island, perhaps a sign that shadow fleet tankers are reluctant to risk being attacked by the US while filling at the terminal.
Jungman expected the trade to continue. “It is important to remember that these businesses are very used to taking risks. This is essentially what this fleet was built for,” she said.
More than 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports go to China, often to small independent refineries that buy the crude despite sanctions because of its steep discount.
But with crude prices surging since the conflict began, Iran’s revenues are likely to be rising sharply. On Monday, Brent was trading just above $101 a barrel in London.
Satellite image visualisation by Jana Tauschinski and cartography by Allysa Honra