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The defining moment of Denmark’s election may have come before it was even called, when the country’s foreign minister rushed out of the White House to smoke a cigarette.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen had just secured a brief respite from the US president’s pursuit of Greenland, by offering to set up a working group to seek a compromise.
Rasmussen, a former centre-right prime minister whose party had been on the verge of extinction, emerged as kingmaker after Tuesday’s election. His centrist Moderate party is needed both by the leftwing bloc of sitting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen or a rival rightwing alliance to form a ruling majority.
“To some extent, it was defining, yes. Donald Trump put up a stage on which Lars Løkke could perform,” said Rune Stubager, professor at Aarhus University, in reference to Rasmussen’s January trip to Washington. “If you are to discuss who won the elections, there’s only one real winner — the Moderates.”
On Tuesday night, Rasmussen, a pipe jutting out of his mouth and tears in his eyes, was buoyant. “We are in the middle. Come down and play with us. We are ready,” he told potential coalition partners.
Most experts say Frederiksen will probably stay on as prime minister for a third term. But she will be considerably weakened after her Social Democrat party posted their worst score in a national election since 1903.
“It is very likely that Mette Frederiksen will continue as prime minister. But it will be a humiliated and humbled Mette Frederiksen. People are so tired of her commanding way of communicating,” said Noa Redington, a former Social Democrat spin doctor.
Frederiksen said on Wednesday that Denmark needed a “stable and competent government” and that she was prepared to lead it as head of the biggest party.
Fellow Social Democrat Ida Auken sought to put on a brave face: “We might have lost, but we still might actually win” the premiership, she said.
Frederiksen’s leftwing bloc ended up with 84 seats out of the 90 needed to form a majority. Rasmussen’s Moderates have 14 seats, while the rightwing has 77.
Jakob Engel-Schmidt, the culture minister and a Moderate MP, said his party’s options are open: “Our purpose is to use our mandates for the maximum political influence. Last time, we managed to build a coalition across the aisle and we will be aiming to do the same.”
Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, the semi-autonomous Danish territory, continued after Rasmussen’s meeting and were eventually defused by the Nato secretary-general, Mark Rutte. The Moderates saw a significant boost from the episode, Engel-Schmidt said, pointing to their polling just 1.5 per cent in December, below the threshold to enter parliament. “It doesn’t hurt that Lars Løkke was convincing on Greenland,” he added.
Rasmussen, Denmark’s longest-serving MP, could even try to come back as prime minister — a role he had twice, in 2009-11, and 2015-19.
“I think he would want to be PM again. I think he will go to some length to be so,” said Stubager. He added that it had only happened once before — in 1968-71 — that the prime minister did not come from the largest party in a Danish coalition. Not getting the top job would be a “hard blow” for the Social Democrats, Stubager added.
A leftwing MP said of Rasmussen: “My guess is that he will start tacking to the right to see what he can get, and then turn to us. If he can’t be the prime minister, he would prefer the stability on our side. But he would love to be prime minister.”
Tough discussions beckon between the 12 parliamentary parties. Experts say foreign policy changes are unlikely, but that the direction of domestic policy is up for grabs. Frederiksen’s leftwing bloc has an advantage from being more coherent than a fractious rightwing, some of whom are furious with Rasmussen.
Frederiksen has a good standing among her European peers for her support for Ukraine and standing up to Trump. But Danish voters have grown frustrated with her uncompromising tone and unpopular policies such as removing a public holiday. She gained a boost from standing up to Trump as well, but not as much as Rasmussen.
Some observers, including her biographer, have speculated she may seek an international job if she does not manage to stay on as premier. “From this morning, this will be the big question in Danish politics: when will she press eject?” asked Redington.