UPDATED, Saturday PM: Amazon MGM Studio’s Project Hail Mary continues to shine at the box office brighter than a sun now with an updated second weekend of $53.1M, after a better-than-expected Friday of $14.6M. That’s a phenomenal second frame for a non-franchise film, some may argue the highest. 1997’s Avatar (which wasn’t a franchise when it opened, it was deemed an original; only history has made it a franchise) posted a second weekend of $75.6M. But more pom poms for Project Hail Mary: The pic’s second weekend is higher than multi-Oscar winner Oppenheimer ($46.7M, -43%) and the 2024 March sci-fi movie Dune Part Two ($46.2M, -44%). That’s a big deal.
There’s a lot of positive here at the box office: The spring has proven prime for studios post Sinners and now Project Hail Mary to roll the dice on original event movies. All titles this weekend at $96.8M are 25% ahead of weekend 13 a year ago which was a hodge podge of Jason Statham’s A Working Man ($15.5M), Chosen: Last Supper ($11.8M), Woman in the Yard ($9.3M) and the Jenna Ortega misfire Death of a Unicorn ($5.7M). People are going to the movies, Project Hail Mary pulling in 54% men, 36% women in weekend two. Broken out that’s women over 25 at 37%, men over 25 at 36%, and men under 25 at 19%. Family audiences are flocking to movies with Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers at an estimated fourth weekend of $11.3M, running cume of $137.3M (it has already surpassed Elio‘s domestic take of $72.9M; and it’s 25% ahead of Elemental‘s fourth weekend ending cume at same point in time).
However, not to necessarily quote the Harry Styles song in Project Hail Mary, the lingering impact of Covid remains a sign of the times at the B.O.: Not everybody is back, evident in how hard it is for counterprogramming to bust out during a non-holiday period: Read, New Line/Nocturna’s They Will Kill You –technically the first big collaboration in the road to merger between David Ellison’s Skydance (they have a stake in Nocturna) and WarnerBros– isn’t wowing with a $5M to $5.5M opening after a $2.2M Friday/previews. International in 66 territories is also weak so far with $1.4M. Back in 2019, weekend 13 minted $137.3M per Box Office Mojo comprised of an underperforming Disney’s Dumbo at No. 1 with $45.9M, the second weekend of Jordan Peele’s Us ($33M) and the fourth weekend of Marvel Studio’s Captain Marvel with $20.6M — a very robust weekend in the tail end of spring break).
How can two really fun, female leading genre movies in Ready or Not 2: Here I Come ($4M second weekend, -56%, cume of $16.2M) and They Will Kill You fall short at the box office? For one, both are similar in being body count slay flicks, and they’re far too close to each other on the calendar, that’s for sure. Warners will say (and they’re right), they were on this release date first (dating the Zazie Beetz movie back in 2022) while Ready or Not 2 hopped around from April 10 to this weekend, to March 20. Others will say that there’s reason why two horror movies with should be in proximity to an event movie such as Project Hail Mary: Both horror movies have conflicting demos with the Ryan Gosling movie, that being largely men over 25, women over 25, and men under 25. The one stubborn demo, particularly for Project Hail Mary and They Will Kill You, is women under 25 at 8% and 10% respectively — that’s on the major studios to figure out how to dynamite that demo even more. In the case of Project Hail Mary, women under 25 are giving the film its best PostTrak exits at 100%. Why is there such a low turnout then?
Kathryn Newton and Samara Weaving in ‘Ready or Not 2: Here I Come’
Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
The answer to the underperformance in Ready or Not 2 and They Will Kill You, aside from butting up against each other, also likely lies in how much both studios, Searchlight and New Line, committing to lower P&A spends particularly in relation to each pic’s production costs, and testing scores. As we always overwrite, both studios are playing for the margins on each genre pic in regards to its economics, they’re not looking to change moviegoing trends on either title. If Warner Bros knew they had a Weapons on their hands (A- CinemaScore, $38M production cost), they’d protect the film, and spend to expand the demos and rally on They Will Kill You. They kept their marketing budget very thrifty on Companion ($10M production cost, B+ CinemaScore, $29M global P&A). Essentially, on a movie where Warner Bros’ doesn’t have massive skin (in a cofinance scenario with Nocturna and Domain on a $20M net production), they’re not going to overspend on P&A ala Companion. How does 20th Century Studios’ Send Help get to a near $100M global box office and with a B+ CinemaScore? It had a bigger budget ($40M), and bigger top shelf talent that Disney didn’t want to upset in Sam Raimi and Oscar nominee Rachel McAdams. Gotta spend for the win in such cases.
More in a bit…
UPDATED, Friday PM: There is a path to a bigger universe this weekend for Amazon MGM Studios’ Lord & Miller-directed and -produced Project Hail Mary, which is cruising to a second Friday of $12.9 million at 4,077 theaters on its way to a $46.8M second weekend, off 42% from its first frame.
That’s better than the second frame of Dune: Part Two, and it gets the Ryan Gosling movie to a 10-day of $156.5M. Dune: Part Two‘s 10-day was $157.2M, and that was franchise IP. Remember, Project Hail Mary keeps all the PLFs and Imax screens. Don’t be surprised if the pic produced by Amy Pascal and Gosling hits $50M in weekend 2.
Second for the frame goes to Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers at 3,650 screens; it is seeing a $2.6M fourth Friday for a $10M weekend, -44%, and a running cume of $136.3M.
Third is the Bollywood hit Dhurandhar 2: The Revenge at 987 sites, with a second Friday of $1.4M and a second weekend around $5M, off 50%, for a running 10-day cume of $23M.
Fourth goes to New Line’s Zazie Beetz genre movie They Will Kill You at 2,778 screens with a $2.4M Friday and a $5M-$6M opening. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score is pretty good currently at 83%, though not as high as Ready or Not 2: Here I Come‘s 90%.
Fifth goes to Universal’s Reminders of Him at 3,174 locations with a third Friday of $1.4M and third weekend of $4.2M, -48%, and a running cume of $40.5M.
Searchlight’s Ready or Not 2 at 3,010 theaters is looking at a second Friday of $1.2M and second weekend around $4M, -56%, with a 10-day of $16.2M. The first chapter in pre-Covid August 2019 had a better hold in its second frame (granted, it was August) with $5.9M, -26%.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: New Line/Nocturna’s They Will Kill You banked $1 million in previews from both Thursday 3 p.m. showtimes and Monday Mystery screenings. That’s a number that’s just under that of Ready or Not 2: Here I Come‘s $1.2M last Thursday, which went on to file a three-day total of $9M.
They Will Kill You, a Z$20M production starring Zazie Beetz and co-financed between New Line and the Skydance-owned Nocturna, is expected to a post a similar opening.
RelishMix is measuring the social media universe for They Will Kill You, which launched as the closing night film out of SXSW on March 17, at 183M, which is +18% above first installment horror genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined. However, that figure is below the SMU reach of Ready or Not 2: Here I Come before opening at 294M. The leading social media stars for the feature are Tom Felton at 26.7M fans, Patricia Arquette now activated to 1.1M, Beetz at 827k and Heather Graham at 748k. Critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 72% fresh, a few digits below Ready or Not 2‘s 75%. No audience score yet. The Kirill Sokolov directed and co-written genre movie is in play overseas in 65 territories, including France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Mexico, Spain and the UK at 7,000 screens.
Amazon MGM Studio’s Project Hail Mary ends its first week at 4,007 theaters with $109.7M after a $6.1M Thursday, off 10% from Wednesday. The hope is that weekend 2 will emulate Dune: Part Two, which was down 44% with around $45M.
Again, there’s a little bit of spring break still in effect which is good for business, with 16% K-12 schools today and 12% of colleges off according to Comscore.
The rest of the week:
2. Hoppers (Disney) 3,675 theaters, Wk $23.9M (-46%), Total $126.3M/Wk 3
3. Dhurandhar The Revenge 987 theaters, Wk $14.1M, Total $18M/Wk 1
4. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (Sea) 3,010 theaters, Wk $12.2M/Wk 1
5. Reminders of Him (Uni) 3,441 theaters, $11.2M (-55%), Total $36.3M/Wk 2
We’ll have more updates later.