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There is a new magic spell bewitching Labour MPs, ministers and advisers, a belief that a pledge to start unstitching Brexit could save the party at the next election. All they have to do is stick on those ruby slippers, tap their heels and say “there’s no case like Rome”.
Signs of this thinking are everywhere. While Keir Starmer has maintained his manifesto position on no return to the EU customs union or single market in this parliament, the prime minister has begun talking about the damage done by Brexit. Both his economic adviser, Minouche Shafik and David Lammy, his deputy, have made the case for rejoining the customs union.
It would not be simple. The customs union alone would not be a panacea; rejoining the single market could threaten the UK’s light touch AI regulation and other sectors. The EU is a hard negotiator, offering little help to Starmer in his reset of relations.
But as political strategies go, a promise to rejoin either (or both) makes sense. A majority of voters now view Brexit as a mistake. Aside from the economic arguments, Donald Trump’s second term is forcefully making the case for a more unified Europe. Labour would forfeit Leave voters in its traditional areas — those who it targeted with limited success at the last election. But most of Labour’s potential voters want to reverse Brexit, so this policy could solidify its fraying support. Finally it would allow a line of attack on Nigel Farage, Britain’s Mr Brexit.
And yet articulating the arguments leads to an inescapable conclusion. Starmer himself cannot do this. A new leader will be needed.
Starmer’s position is already in jeopardy. The question for most MPs is when, not whether, he will be ousted. Few see him leading them into the next election. His unforced errors, strategic failures and apparent lack of interest in the art of politics or feel for his own party have started the clock on his premiership. Cabinet ministers are openly jostling for position.
The most obvious danger point is after an anticipated thumping in May’s local and devolved elections. Starmer is counting on Labour’s historic aversion to removing a sitting premier — and a lack of clarity over who might succeed him — to cling on next year. But one sympathiser observes icily. “It all hangs on when Angela Rayner wants to strike.”
The focus on a Brexit gambit magnifies his weaknesses. This would be a bold move and a clear switch from the existing electoral strategy of stopping voters leaking away to Reform. It will require serious political skills, firm leadership and deft communications.
Brexit may now be unpopular but it will still be an ugly fight. Many will not wish to reopen divisions. The right-wing media will scream betrayal. If Labour feels bold enough to suggest rejoining the single market, it will mean accepting free movement and therefore making the argument for European migrants.
And it cannot be sprung on the voters at the election. You have to spend the coming years making the case, perhaps preparing the European Commission and member states. Lest we forget, they have the actual say on this. Making the case now also raises the question, why wait?
This brings us to Starmer himself. The prime minister has never shown the strategic thinking necessary to pull this off. He did, and possibly still does, believe in the anti-Brexit cause but even this week he was warning that rejoining the customs union would scupper his trade deals.
To borrow a criticism, in his robust defence of Brexit freedoms, Starmer resembles Alec Guinness’s half-mad colonel in The Bridge on the River Kwai, protecting an edifice he has forgotten was built for the benefit of the other side. Can Starmer really be the one to lead such a major reversal of policy? If the new strategy is what Labour MPs want, his defiance now is dooming him.
There were political reasons for previous commitments to stay out. The country wanted an end to the Brexit rows and Labour felt it needed to mollify Leave voters in former Labour seats. But Starmer’s pledges were short-term tactics rather than long-term strategy. Fundamentally, he lacks the credibility or political capital for another large policy switch. There is no evidence the UK will listen to him. The reason to doubt his future is that many of these questions about his leadership apply to Starmer now, regardless of what he does on Brexit.
The danger of a new Brexit strategy led by Starmer is that, after all his previous statements on the topic, it will seem to be motivated less by conviction than convenience. If Farage or the Conservatives have to fight for Brexit again, Starmer is the opponent they would probably choose.
Of course it is not clear that Rayner or any of the other contenders would succeed in delivering an anti-Brexit strategy either. Each has their negatives. Rayner is very popular with party members but she is polarising; one recent poll put her net popularity score at -40.
This does not mean Starmer has to go next year, but the Brexit gambit demands a bold and full-throated argument made over a long period of time. It would demand a new leader well before the next election, someone with a cleaner slate and the conviction and charisma to carry voters.
If Labour chooses this fight — and there are reasons to think it will — someone else will need to lead the charge.