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Canada increasingly fears a conflict in the Arctic following the Trump administration’s threats to take over Greenland and its seizure of Venezuela’s oil reserves.
Bob Rae, Canada’s recently retired ambassador to the United Nations, said that US President Donald Trump had sparked global tensions unseen since the second world war.
“We need to make sure that we’re stronger as a country in the face of these unprecedented threats,” he told the Financial Times. “The Arctic security issue, which is a real issue, is one that continues to require a much stronger Canadian response.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney travelled to Paris this week where he reiterated support for Denmark after the White House said it was exploring options including “utilising the US military” to acquire Greenland.
The US actions follow the release of a National Security Strategy in November that has been nicknamed the “Donroe doctrine” — a Trumpian update on the 19th century policy that sought to establish US dominance over the Americas.
Oil-rich Canada has also been closely watching events in Venezuela after the US captured Nicolás Maduro last week and said it would control oil sales “indefinitely.” Washington has made similar threats against Cuba, Mexico and Colombia.
The US state department this week posted on X a picture of Trump and the words “This is our hemisphere” that does not mention Canada but reframes the region as a US sphere of influence.
Kenneth Frankel, president of the Canadian Council for the Americas, said it was “almost irrelevant” to ask if the US and Canada remained allies as Ottawa now faced the same threats as Latin America.
“The White House has explicitly said that it will go anywhere it needs to go to appropriate to itself or take all appropriate actions necessary to secure its sovereignty, economic, and otherwise,” he said.
Canadian energy minister Tim Hodgson warned last month that Canada was in Trump’s crosshairs.
“This (NSS) document is a wake-up call,” he told Montreal-based La Presse in December.
“This is especially true for Canada, given that our economy is the most integrated with that of the US.”
Hodgson and the prime minister’s office both declined to comment.
In May, Trump said it was “highly unlikely” the administration would use force to annex Canada, but regularly he says the country should be the 51st US state.
Steve Bannon, a key Trump ally, told the Financial Times the president saw the annexation of Canada as part of a strategic defence plan.
Frank McKenna, the chair of Brookfield Asset Management and a former Canadian ambassador to the US, said that despite the “existential threat,” Trump’s policies could be seen positively as they sparked government spending on infrastructure projects, increased military capabilities and they were shifting trading relations to Europe and Asia.
“Every day there’s a new anxiety because we are in uncharted territory and quite frankly, we don’t know what the president will do or think on a given day. So in that sense, it’s difficult not to have some concern,” he said.
Carney has pledged to increase defence spending by C$8.1 bn over the next five years to comply with Trump’s demand that Nato spends 2 per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.
Much of that is being funnelled into boosting Canada’s Arctic presence.
“There is a clear focus on the North, where defending the Arctic and safeguarding Canada’s sovereignty remains a top priority,” said a spokesperson for the Minister of National Defence.
Analysts fear a potential conflict in Canada’s Arctic, that makes up 40 per cent of the country’s landmass but is home to only 150,000 people.
The current perceived threat in the Arctic is China and Russia, but analysts fear Trump could engineer a territorial dispute, such as over the Northwest Passage, which the Americans consider to be international waters but Canada claims as its own.
In late December, Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, posted on X that he was “Getting ready to work with the US in the Arctic” at a time when Canada is spending billions in the region to ward off growing Kremlin and Chinese encroachment.
“How is the US going to define what its interests are there (in the Arctic) and what it wants?” said Frankel. “The government in Ottawa is very aware of all kinds of scenarios and is taking nothing for granted.”
During the last Trump presidency, the administration challenged Canada’s sovereignty over the Northwest Passage, which is becoming a busier shipping lane as the polar ice melts.