Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
The writer is a professor at Johns Hopkins University and author of ‘Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History’
Iran’s Islamic republic is now battling for its survival. Days of convulsive protests have engulfed the country. And what started as a popular uprising is entering a new phase, which could morph into war. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened that the US would intervene militarily to aid the protesters if Iran’s security forces used deadly force against them. Iran crossed that line three days ago; the death toll is rising rapidly — and Trump is reportedly weighing his options. “The leaders of Iran called yesterday . . . they want to negotiate . . . but we may have to act before that meeting,” he told reporters on Sunday.
Trump could order an attack to punish Iran or to prevent it from suppressing protests. It could even try to eliminate the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hoping Washington could then dictate terms to what remains of the regime. However, military strikes alone will not bring about regime change. The protests are angry, leaderless and disorganised. There is no viable figure or political movement to marshal them and take over from the Islamic republic. The US seemingly has no plan, and if Venezuela is any guide, no appetite for dealing with the messy day after the Islamic republic.
But America is pursuing another non-military campaign that could break Iran. Trump’s announcement yesterday that he is imposing 25 per cent tariffs “effective immediately” on any nation that does business with Iran is perhaps more worrisome to Tehran than military strikes. The announcement is likely to encourage capital flight, putting further downward pressure on the rial.
It was the dramatic depreciation of the rial in 2025 that sparked the recent protests; the currency lost 84 per cent of its value last year, 16 per cent in December alone. The prospect of higher tariffs could dissuade Iran’s main trading partners — China, India, Iraq, Turkey and the UAE — from doing business with Tehran. The ensuing economic hardship is likely to fuel more protests that Washington can then support through intervention or further military threats.
What Tehran fears is a repetition of what happened during the Arab Spring. In Libya and Syria, peaceful protests quickly evolved into armed confrontation, then civil war and, eventually, total collapse. Over the past few days, Iran’s rulers have tried to distinguish between protesters and “rioters” and “armed terrorists” who they claim are supported by Israel and the US. Trump’s sabre-rattling is proof to them that the protests are part of a broader US strategy.
To foil America’s plans, Tehran believes it must quickly crush the protests and then bring its own supporters into the streets to show regime change is not imminent. This hinges on whether the Islamic republic or the protesters have greater staying power. The government, having brought its own crowds into the cities, claims that, for now, it has the upper hand.
Whatever happens in the coming days, the Islamic republic is looking at a bleak future. The threat of war with Israel and the US will continue to loom, the economic situation will deteriorate further as Trump tightens the noose, perhaps interdicting tankers ferrying Iranian oil. More protests could follow a possible US military intervention. Iran would then be looking at a fate similar to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq between the two Gulf wars. The end there came when America invaded a weakened Iraq.
To escape this, Iran’s rulers can either fight or change course. Those advocating war, especially within the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, argue that the US thinks Iran is weak and there is no cost to attacking it. It is only by forcefully responding to a US attack or even pre-emptively attacking the US or Israel, they say, that Iran can deter the Trump administration. Until now this has been the minority view and Khamenei has kept it at bay. However, if a US strike were to eliminate him and the regime faced collapse, the pro-war faction could determine the next steps.
Alternatively, the country could take a different path. Since June when Iran faced war with Israel and the US, calls for change within elite leadership circles have grown louder. Khamenei has not countenanced change, and hence removing him from the scene may well be the aim of US military action. Then, sustained pressure could fracture the regime, empowering those favouring reform. This is a risky bet, and US air strikes are far from a precise scalpel guaranteeing the desired outcome.
Iran may bet on escalation rather than submission. That could force President Trump into the kind of war he has thus far eschewed.