FRIDAY PM: Pixar is bound for its best opening since 2017’s Coco with Hoppers springing to a wonderful $40M weekend opening at 4,000 locations. Hoppers first day/previews alone are estimated $12.7M (possibly $13M by end of night), which is higher than the Friday/previews of 2020’s Onward ($12M, $39.1M opening), 2023’s Elemental ($11.7M, $29.6M opening) and last summer’s Elio ($8.96M, $20.8M opening). Though no official audience scores yet, we’re hearing that they are pacing with the pic’s great critical score, now 93% certified fresh. Muy bien, Hoppers.
We’re in a better position with the No. 1 opening film than we were a year ago, which was Warner Bros’ Bong Joon Ho sci-fi feature Mickey 17 which fizzled with a $19M opening.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix measures the pic’s social media reach before opening at 363.6M across Facebook, TikTok, X, Instagram and YouTube which is just under Pixar’s Toy Story spinoff Lightyear (371M), far above Onward (284M), Elemental (301.3M) and Elio (272.5M). Overall, Hoppers‘ SMU is “13% above a wide range of new family animated genre norms,” says RelishMix.
“Convo runs positive for Hoppers, with the crowd buying the high concept as family friendly sci-fi and mostly rewarding the self-aware humor. The dominant shorthand is mashup math that sells it fast, ‘Over the Hedge plus Avatar equals this’ and ‘Open Season meets Avatar.‘ The cuteness marketing is working embarrassingly well, ‘They’re really making me hyped for a beaver’ and ‘I need a plush of the beaver, it looks so squishy.’ Comedy beats are the trailer MVP, ‘Drive now rocket ship love it’ and ‘Pond rules for all.’ Craft and style get real credit, ‘Very different and unique animation cool’ and ‘Looks different than the usual Pixar style, characters have character.’ The fandom and creator halo help: ‘I love the voice actress of Mabel, Piper Curda.’”
Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale in ‘The Bride!’
Warner Bros.
Not doing so well, and far below forecasts is Warner Bros’ Maggie Gyllenhaal directed The Bride! which is seeing $3M today for a potential $8M-$10M opening at 3,304 sites in third for the reported $80M feature production. The movie is being booted out of second by the second weekend of Paramount/Spyglass’ Scream 7 which is seeing $5.5M today for an $18M (-72%) at 3,540 over Friday-Sunday, and a total ten-day cume of $94M by EOD Sunday. Who knew Scream 7 would open so big? That high teens number is what Warners was hoping for on Bride! The Rotten Tomatoes’ audience score at 66% isn’t far from the critics blase score of 61%. Critics are divided ala an A24 genre movie for the pro-female Lady Frankenstein movie. On one side you have Wall Street Journal‘s Kyle Smith ripping, “Like Dr. F. himself, Ms. Gyllenhaal has unleashed a monster on unsuspecting countrymen. A witty theater owner would match the mood by selling torches and pitchforks at the concession stand” whereas The Guardian‘s Peter Bradshaw exclaims that it’s a “gangster joyride” and that “Without (Jessie) Buckley, this would have been lacking; with her, it’s a very bizarre and enjoyable spectacle of married bliss.” The film has spoken to some, but to others, it’s a lead balloon.
The Bride‘s social media universe reach at 178.2M is “running -14% below horror franchises/remake norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined with a brisk push on Instagram over the last month,” says RelishMix.
Says RelishMix about word of mouth, “Mixed-negative leaning chatter for The Bride! clusters around fatigue with parallel Frankenstein releases, skepticism toward reimaginings, and fears the concept could tip into self-parody. Some read the mash-up as clever Venn-diagram marketing that risks confusing intent, while others worry style will outrun story. Comparisons to Guillermo del Toro’s take and Penny Dreadful are used as quality bars rather than sequel gripes. Trailer pacing and legibility also take hits, with complaints about over-cutting and muddled tone. Representative lines include ‘This feels like a satire of itself’ and ‘So many Frankensteins lately, I’m not convinced.’”
Fourth goes to Sony’s GOAT‘s fourth weekend with $6.7M (-44%) at 3,303 locations after a $1.5M Friday heading to a running total by Sunday near $84M. Fifth is Warner Bros/MRC’s fourth frame of Wuthering Heights with $3.4M (-49%) at 2,512 theaters after a $1.1M Friday for a running total by Sunday of $78.4M.
FRIDAY AM: Pixar Original Hoppers is off to a solid start in previews with $3.2M. Keep in mind that’s $2M from Thursday night and the rest from Saturday previews a week ago.
That preview figure tracks with 2024’s Kung Fu Panda 4 (granted, not original), which did $3.8M in previews for a $58M 3-day. The expectation is that Hoppers is in the high-$30M+ range at 4,000 North American theaters, which would be the best domestic start for a Pixar original since 2017’s Coco ($50.8M 3-day, 5-day of $72.9M). The $150M production Hoppers already has the best reviews for a Pixar original since Coco (96% certified fresh to 97%). Pixar originals have struggled post-Covid, with Elio hitting a brand-opening low of $20.8M last year.
Already, Hoppers‘ previews figure is above 2020’s Onward ($2.7M, $39.1M opening weekend), 2023’s Elemental ($2.5M, $29.6M opening), this year’s GOAT ($1.5M, $27.2M 3-day), 2024’s The Wild Robot ($2M, $35.8M) and last year’s Dog Man ($1.4M, $36M opening).
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Stateside, Hoppers will have all the bounce from such ticket upcharges as 400 Imax screens (sharing with The Bride!), 1,000+ premium large-format screens, 2,200 3D screens and 350 D-Box/motion screens.
Warner Bros is reporting a low $1 million for The Bride! The pic starring Jessie Buckley and Christian cost a reported $80M before P&A. Rotten Tomatoes reviews stand at 61% fresh. In NRG tracking, it was tracking best in first choice with women. In unaided awareness, it was best with women over 25. Warners is hoping for high teens stateside, $38M-$40M global. Some in exhibition believe it can be as low as $12M this weekend in U.S./Canada. The pic is playing on 34,000 global screens, 28,500 of those in 69 territories abroad including France, Korea, Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, UK and China.
Spring break this weekend on ComScore shows 5% K-12 schools out, moving to 10% by Monday. Colleges are 9% on break upping to 26% off by Monday. March spring breaks will reach a peak on Friday, March 20 with 38% K-12 off, 37% colleges on break.
Rest of the week:
1) Scream 7 (Par) 3,540 theaters, Wk $76M/Wk 1
2) GOAT (Sony) 3,707 theaters, Wk $15.1M (-27%), Total $77.1M/Wk 3
3) Wuthering Heights (WB) 3,221 theaters, Wk $9.6M (-51%), Total $75M/Wk 3
4) EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (NEON) 1,963 theaters Wk $5.1M (+19%), Total $9.4M/Wk 2\
5) Crime 101 (AMZ) 2,607 theaters, Wk $4.9M (-36%), Total $31.5M/Wk 3