Israel expects weeks-long war against Iran


Israel is preparing for a multi-week military onslaught alongside the US to fully “dismantle” key pillars of Iran’s theocratic state and the Revolutionary Guards that protect the Islamic republic, said current and former Israeli officials.

A senior Israeli military official said Israel’s objective was to “dismantle the regime’s military infrastructure, including the IRGC” as well as Iranian nuclear sites, military production facilities and space and cyber capabilities.

“We’re preparing for several long weeks,” the official said.

They said the “third phase” of the war was under way. That followed a first phase that consisted of deadly opening strikes in Tehran on Saturday targeting the Iranian leadership, followed by a second phase of “100 hours” focused on destroying ballistic missile, drone and air-defence capabilities.

A former senior Israeli official who is familiar with the current war plans warned that “this will take time . . . There is a lot of work to be done. Iran is huge.”

Senior US officials, including President Donald Trump, have provided a variety of explanations of their reasons for launching the war against Iran alongside Israel, and of its ultimate goals.

But Israel’s endgame was the “total destruction of this regime, of the pillars of this regime, of everything that holds it together: the IRGC, the Basij [grassroots militia], its strategic capabilities”, said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert and senior researcher at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Removing Iran’s ability to threaten Israel — primarily via missiles and a nascent nuclear programme — was the “obvious” endgame, but even more important to Israel’s government, Citrinowicz added, was “undermining this regime [so] it has to deal with internal problems”.

Israeli officials including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said one goal of the offensive is to “create the conditions” for the regime’s overthrow. Israel Katz, defence minister, said on Wednesday that “every leader appointed by the Iranian terror regime . . . will be an unequivocal target for elimination [by Israel]”.

Analysts said it was not clear that destroying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a 180,000-strong force, was possible. And Israeli officials have not said exactly how they plan to lay the groundwork for the regime’s overthrow, or what might come after that, though they have suggested covert operations may be involved.

Summarising the Israeli government’s position, Citrinowicz said: “If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran.

“That is a point of difference between us and the US. I think [Washington is] are more concerned about nation-building and threats to their regional partners,” he added.

On Tuesday, an Israeli air strike tore through a building in the Iranian holy city of Qom. The target was the gathering place for the Assembly of Experts, the 88-person clerical body meant to choose Iran’s next supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed at the weekend.

It remains unclear whether Israel believed the body was meeting at the time, but an Israeli military official said afterwards that the goal was to stop Iran from choosing a new supreme leader.

“We want to ensure Iran stays in disarray,” they said.

Rescue workers carry a body on a stretcher past an ambulance, with damaged buildings visible in the background.
Rescuers carry the body of a victim following an attack in Tehran on Wednesday © ISNA/AFP via Getty Images

Current and former US officials have said the next phase of the war will involve deploying more military assets to the Middle East, with Trump saying earlier in the week the “big wave” of strikes on Iran had yet to happen.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that “more and larger waves” of attacks on Iran were coming.

At the same time, Israeli officials have privately raised concerns about Washington’s staying power and whether Trump will remain committed to seeing the campaign through.

US officials have so far been adamant that Washington is ready to continue the war for as long as necessary — a position Israeli officials publicly highlight.

“We have only just begun to fight . . . Iran cannot outlast us,” said Hegseth on Wednesday.

Donald Trump shakes hands with Benjamin Netanyahu during a news conference, with U.S. and Israeli flags in the background.
US President Donald Trump has provided a variety of explanations for launching the war against Iran alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu © Alex Brandon/AP

At the same time, senior Trump administration officials, including Hegseth and secretary of state Marco Rubio, have ceased to mention regime change as a goal of the US campaign in recent days.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after meeting Trump on Tuesday that “In my knowledge and understanding today, the American government does not have a clearly formulated strategy for the future civilian leadership of this country”.

Israeli officials appear less concerned with such planning than with destroying Iranian regime capabilities. Israeli forces alone have deployed more force against Iran in four days than in 12 days of conflict last June, fought largely without the US.

If a new leadership just as hardline rose up from the ashes of this war, “they will be dealt with as well”, said the former senior Israeli official.

A person familiar with Israeli government thinking said: “Israel wants to destroy the Iranian regime’s capabilities to such an extent that it will not have to fight another round. They don’t want rounds two, three and four. They want to finish the job now.”

Cartography by Steven Bernard and infographic by Aditi Bhandari

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