SOL price looks bearish on multiple chart timeframes, leading analysts to put a short-term target on $50. Will the “extreme” state of SOL’s MVRV indicator prevent another price crash?
Solana’s SOL (SOL) continues to be battered by bearish headwinds since collapsing to $67 on Feb. 6. SOL is more than 72% below its all-time high of $295, and several metrics suggest that the downside may be far from over.
Key takeaways:
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Solana’s bearish technical patterns lean toward a $50 price target.
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The MVRV bands suggest SOL may have bottomed, but the data point is an outlier.
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The spot Solana ETFs continue to attract investor interest, providing hope for a short-term price recovery.
SOL chart technicals target $50
Solana’s latest drawdown caused its price to lose key support levels, confirming a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the weekly chart.
Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing SOL validating a H&S pattern, hinting at more downside ahead.
“The next level of support sits around the $50-$60 area.”
The two-day chart shows that the price had broken below the H&S’s neckline at $120 on Jan. 30. The measured target of the H&S pattern, calculated by adding the head’s height from the breakdown point, is $57, representing a 30% drop from the current level.
Zooming in, the price was retesting support provided by the lower boundary of a bear flag at $80 on the daily chart, as shown in the chart below.
Related: Zora debuts attention markets on Solana, betting on social trends
A daily candlestick close below $80 will confirm the pattern, opening the path to a further drop toward the measured target of the flag at $48. Such a move would bring the total losses to 41%.
Solana’s MVRV bands hint at a bottom
Below $80, SOL’s first line of defense is provided by the lowest boundary of its MVRV pricing bands at $73. The bands represent onchain price zones that show when SOL is trading below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Historically, SOL’s price plunged near or even below the lowest MVRV band before a significant rally took place. This can be seen in March 2022, when SOL price rose 87% within three weeks to $140 after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $75. A similar rebound occurred earlier in June 2022 and December 2020.
Solana’s association with the FTX crash in November 2022 saw a significant deviation below this band, with the price dropping another 70% and bottoming around $7 in December that year.
Solana ETFs inflows provide reprieve
US-based spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract investor interest, with these investment products recording inflows in 66 of 74 days, underscoring persistent institutional demand since their launch in late October 2025.
The spot SOL ETFs added $2.9 million on Tuesday, bringing their cumulative inflows to $877 million and the total net assets under management to over $726 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
Similarly, global Solana-based investment products logged a total of $31 million in net inflows during the week ending Feb. 13.
This reinforced the steady institutional demand for SOL-based ETPs, even as the market price weakened.
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