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Sir Keir Starmer hopes 2026 will be the revival of his ailing premiership. However, barely three weeks into the year, the conversation within his own party is increasingly focused on who will replace him and when.
On Thursday, independent MP Andrew Gwynne announced his retirement, opening up a window of opportunity for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge an increasingly beleaguered prime minister.
Ladbrokes immediately declared Burnham the 7/2 favourite to take over as prime minister by the end of the year.
Others vying for the crown — should a vacancy arise — include health secretary Wes Streeting, home secretary Shabana Mahmood and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, according to MPs.
Several of Streeting’s allies have urged him to make a move for the leadership sooner rather than later. “When Wes is awake, he’s organising and when he’s asleep, he’s dreaming of organising,” said one MP.
One minister said Streeting was considering mounting a leadership challenge before elections across the country in May — despite his team’s denials — and his behaviour was irritating Starmer’s allies. “There’s a lot of noise around Wes and it’s not all his fault, but he does keep straying out of his area,” said one Starmer ally.
Meanwhile Mahmood is attracting a close interest from Rupert Murdoch and other senior executives at News UK — the publisher of The Times and The Sun — attracted by her hardline stance on immigration, according to one company figure.
In a sign of Starmer’s jitters about a potential leadership challenge, MPs have noted an outreach programme from Number 10 and key allies in recent weeks with the prime minister becoming a regular in the MPs’ dining room after PMQs every Wednesday.
When Burnham was re-elected as the Greater Manchester mayor in 2021, he declared his role “the best job in the world” in a tearful onstage speech.
But just moments later he was asked if he still harboured ambitions to return to a role high up in Westminster. “In the distant future, if the party were ever to feel it needed me, well I’m here and they should get in touch,” he said.
After years of speculation, that future may now be upon him.
Burnham’s path back to SW1 remains fraught with obstacles, with a by-election in Gwynne’s seat of Gorton and Denton still months away.
Several Labour figures said Burnham was likely to be blocked by Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee from even reaching the shortlist for the seat, given the body’s pro-Starmer majority.
Some allies of Burnham argue that Starmer would be taking a political risk if he prevented the mayor from becoming a by-election candidate.
One Labour MP from a seat in the north said: “If Keir blocks him from going back to Westminster that would make the prime minister look pretty weak. And if they stop him standing for the seat that could make it more likely that Reform win Gorton, and Keir would then be responsible for yet another Reform MP entering Parliament.”
Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, said it would be a “democratic outrage” if Burnham were blocked from seeking selection as a by-election candidate: “Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection.”
Burnham, who stood down from his Leigh seat nearly a decade ago to take up his current role, has frequently topped polls of both the public and Labour members asked for their preferred leader to Starmer.
He has become increasingly vocal in his criticisms of the Labour government as it has faltered amid U-turns and unpopular policy decisions.
Ahead of Labour party conference in October, Burnham gave a series of interviews that heightened speculation about his intentions.
Nevertheless his contention that Britain is “in hock to the bond markets” — repeated in a speech to the Institute for Fiscal Studies earlier this week — was widely derided, including by MPs unconvinced that he has the political or intellectual depth to run the party or the country.
Another frequently common criticism, according to two MPs, relates to Burnham’s departure from Westminster in 2017 when the party’s moderates were battling leftwing leader Jeremy Corbyn.
“The tea room view from some is ‘hang on, the moment things got tough, Andy was out the door’,” said one. “And now he pops up and wants to take the prize.”
One minister said “nothing good will come of it” if Burnham did seek to return to parliament in a by-election, saying that he might not win the seat in the face of a Reform UK challenge.
“It would be a big risk for Andy and a big distraction for the party,” the minister said. “You also have to remember that Andy isn’t very well known at Westminster among the new MPs. He hasn’t been here for almost a decade.”
If Burnham did return to Westminster he would still need to convince at least 80 MPs, under party rules, to back him as a challenger to Starmer.
Two northern Labour figures said they believed enough would do so, albeit in the belief that Burnham could help “save their seats” rather than through personal enthusiasm.
“A fair analysis is nobody really knows,” said one MP of where the current turmoil would lead. “But everybody is trying to capitalise on the chaos to get the outcome they want.”