Sightings of David Miliband, now head of the International Rescue Committee, at Westminster on Monday were a reminder to ambitious Labour politicians of the perils of dithering and missing a political moment.
In 2008 the then-foreign secretary was urged by colleagues to run against a weakened Gordon Brown but refused to move; the party crown was ultimately seized by his brother Ed.
Sir Keir Starmer may have bought himself some time by blocking Andy Burnham’s bid to return to Westminster, but many Labour MPs see it as only a leadership crisis delayed. The question is for how long?
While the attempt by Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, to return as an MP in a by-election may have been thwarted, the threat to Starmer posed by health secretary Wes Streeting has not gone away.
Labour officials say that until Starmer and his allies intervened to block Burnham’s return to Westminster, there was an assumption that the initial move in any coup would come from the Greater Manchester mayor.
With Burnham sidelined for now, this presents a major dilemma for Streeting. “He’s the one who has to pull the trigger now,” said one confidant of the prime minister. “And everyone knows there’s a real danger in a leadership contest of being the assassin.”
Some Labour officials believe Starmer could be brought down by a mutiny on a series of fronts, including possible cabinet resignations or a letter from MPs calling for him to quit without directly implicating Streeting.
A no-hope “stalking horse” candidate could be put forward to weaken Starmer. But to formally launch a contest, any rival to Starmer needs to assemble the support of 81 colleagues.
Streeting, who comes from the right of the party, is well aware of the risks of being seen by the majority of the party on the Labour left to be mounting a “Blairite coup”.
The general view among Labour MPs is that Streeting is unlikely to move against Starmer before crucial elections on May 7, but is more likely to assess the mood after what many in the party expect to be a pummelling at the polls.
Even then, Streeting will have some convincing to do. Liz Kendall, the last person to fight the Labour leadership on a Blairite ticket, won 4.5 per cent of the party vote in 2015.
“What’s his pitch?” asked one well-connected Labour official on the left. “He can’t just say that he’s good on the broadcast media round.”
Some believe that Streeting, who has cited the advantages of joining a new customs union with the EU, will use the issue of Europe to try to win over left-leaning colleagues. “Europe is the one issue that can untether people from their traditional positions,” said one party strategist.
Streeting has also recently tacked left on other issues, including on Gaza and on his opposition to cuts to winter fuel payments. His backers say recent polls suggest Labour primarily wants a leader who is competent and can beat Farage.
One Labour figure said that half of the ministers in government and half of the PLP could potentially support the health secretary for the leadership if a vacancy came up.
But the figure insisted that Streeting had told Morgan McSweeney, chief of staff to Starmer, before Christmas that he was not on active manoeuvres. “The conversation he had with Morgan was that he was clear he was not plotting but planning,” he said. “He was talking about what would happen if everything fell apart rather than trying to make things fall apart.”
The move to sideline Burnham from the leadership debate — ostensibly because Labour did not want to fight a costly mayoral by-election in Manchester — had the clear intent of providing some space for Starmer to turn things around before the May elections.
“The best antidote to all this speculation is good governance, good policies and then we will put our case to the voters,” a Starmer ally said. Many Labour MPs remain unconvinced that Starmer can rise to that challenge.
Had Burnham returned to Westminster in the coming weeks, the run-up to the May elections in Scotland, Wales and English councils would have been consumed by a “psychodrama” around the leadership, Douglas Alexander, Scotland secretary, admitted on Monday.
One moderate Labour MP said: “Every thing that Keir did would have been seen through the prism of what Andy was going to do and what Andy was going to say.” Some believe Burnham could have moved against Starmer before May 7.
The pathway to a coup is still unclear and Starmer’s team cling to the hope that something may turn up before May and that his rivals — who may also include Rayner and deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell — lose their nerve.
In the meantime, the prime minister’s authority could be further undermined, especially if Labour loses the Gorton and Denton by-election, which will take place on February 26.
Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader, said on Monday that Starmer’s decision to block Burnham, nicknamed “the King in the North”, could hand the seat to his party.
“Had Burnham stood then, I think he would have galvanised the anti-Starmer vote,” Farage said. “I think our chances have improved massively overnight.”
For Starmer, that is a risk he is willing to take, in the hope that he can win some relative political calm ahead of the May elections, as Labour activists prepare to trudge the doorsteps and be exposed to the fire of voter anger.
“That’s what the party membership expects,” said one Labour official. “In that respect Keir got it right. But that’s not to say that people are satisfied with his leadership. On the contrary, they are deeply dissatisfied.”
Buying time may be Starmer’s only survival strategy at the moment. Streeting’s task is to judge if — or when — the mood in the party has turned regicidal.